Market comparison
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗9 outcomes · $86K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 2, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗4 outcomes · $74K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 1, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Windows differ: Kalshi counts hurricanes from January 1 to December 1; Polymarket from market creation to November 30.
- Kalshi strict 'Above 6' equals Polymarket '7+'; other rungs are sums of buckets.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
7+ Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
0 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
1-3 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
4-6 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 4 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 7 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 8 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 9 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 10 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 12 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 15 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
7+
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
0
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
1-3
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
4-6
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Above 4
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 7
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 8
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 9
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 10
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 12
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 15
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.