Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in California?
2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗8 outcomes · $29K reported volume
Observed 19s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗8 outcomes · $27K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
44 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.7 pp | ||
45 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.9 pp | ||
46 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.4 pp | ||
47 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
48 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
49+ Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 2.6 pp | ||
43 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
50 and above Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Below 44 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
44
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.7 pp
45
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.9 pp
46
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.4 pp
47
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
48
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
49+
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.6 pp
43
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
50 and above
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Below 44
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.