Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in Nevada?
2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗4 outcomes · $38K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $21K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
2 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.6 pp | ||
3 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
4 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
0 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
1 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Below 2 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
2
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.6 pp
3
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.0 pp
4
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
0
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
1
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Below 2
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.