Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in New Jersey?
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $40K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $16K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.6 pp | ||
9 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
10 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.0 pp | ||
Above 10 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Below 8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp |
8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.6 pp
9
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
10
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.0 pp
Above 10
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
Below 8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.