Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?
2 venues · 10 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗10 outcomes · $37K reported volume
Observed 34s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $11K reported volume
Observed 34s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
<16 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.8 pp | ||
16 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
17 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
18 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.0 pp | ||
19 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
20 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
21 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 15.5 pp | ||
22 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
23 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 23 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
<16
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.8 pp
16
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
17
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.3 pp
18
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.0 pp
19
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
20
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.5 pp
21
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 15.5 pp
22
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
23
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Above 23
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.