Market comparison
How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗8 outcomes · $64K reported volume
Observed 36s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $25K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
7 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
9 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
10 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
11 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
12 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 2.2 pp | ||
Below 7 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Above 12 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
7
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
9
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
10
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
11
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
12
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.2 pp
Below 7
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Above 12
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.