Market comparison

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 57s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
0 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	85.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0% 0 Open Kalshi ↗	82.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 83.0% 0 Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp
1 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	18.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0% 1 Open Kalshi ↗	14.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0% 1 Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
2 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% 2 Open Kalshi ↗	2.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 5.3% 2 Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.5% 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% 5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
6+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% 6+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 2 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

0

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

82.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 83.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

1

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

2

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 5.3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Open Polymarket ↗

5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Open Polymarket ↗

6+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 2

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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