Market comparison
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $28K reported volume
Observed 40s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $26K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
3 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.3 pp | ||
4 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.4 pp | ||
5 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
6 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Above 6 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
Below 3 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp |
3
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.3 pp
4
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.4 pp
5
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.0 pp
6
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Above 6
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.3 pp
Below 3
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.