Market comparison

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $29K reported volume

Observed 38s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
44 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.4% 44 Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% 44 Open Kalshi ↗	3.1 pp
45 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.9% Bid 1.2% · Ask 6.5% 45 Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 45 Open Kalshi ↗	2.8 pp
46 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.4% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.7% 46 Open Polymarket ↗	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6% 46 Open Kalshi ↗	2.3 pp
47 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% 47 Open Polymarket ↗	13.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0% 47 Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
48 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	78.5% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% 48 Open Polymarket ↗	78.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% 48 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
49+ Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.5% Bid 1.5% · Ask 7.6% 49+ Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.9% 49 Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
43 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% 43 Open Polymarket ↗ 0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% <43 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
50 and above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.0% 50 and above Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below 44 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Below 44 Open Kalshi ↗	—