Market comparison
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗10 outcomes · $14K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗9 outcomes · $5K reported volume
Observed 54s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
<4 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
4 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.1 pp | ||
5 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.2 pp | ||
6 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.5 pp | ||
7 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.7 pp | ||
9 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.9 pp | ||
10 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
11 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
12+ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Above 10 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
<4
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
4
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.1 pp
5
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.2 pp
6
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.5 pp
7
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.7 pp
9
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.9 pp
10
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.1 pp
11
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
12+
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Above 10
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.