Market comparison
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?
2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $66K reported volume
Observed 19s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $35K reported volume
Observed 19s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
5 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
6 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp | ||
7 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp | ||
8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
9 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp | ||
Above 9 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Below 5 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp |
5
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
6
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.5 pp
7
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.5 pp
8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
9
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.0 pp
Above 9
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
Below 5
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.