Market comparison
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?
2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $249K reported volume
Observed 9s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $12K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
6 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.7 pp | ||
7 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
8 Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
9 Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 4.0 pp | ||
5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
10 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
11 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Below 6 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
6
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.7 pp
7
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
8
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
9
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.0 pp
5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
10
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
11
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Below 6
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.