Market comparison

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

2 venues · 29 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $870K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $359K reported volume

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 70.0% <5 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5-6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 41.0% 5-6 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
7-8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.7% 7-8 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
9-10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8% 9-10 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
11-12 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% 11-12 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
13-14 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 13-14 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
14 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.8% Bid 68.3% · Ask 97.2% <14 Open Polymarket ↗ 23.1% Bid 1.4% · Ask 44.7% 14 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.3% Bid 0.4% · Ask 52.1% 15 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
15-16 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 15-16 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
16 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6% >16 Open Polymarket ↗ 19.7% Bid 0.1% · Ask 39.3% 16 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
17+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.7% 17+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% <100 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
100-119 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 100-119 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
120-139 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.1% Bid 6.4% · Ask 13.8% 120-139 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
140-159 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	71.0% Bid 63.9% · Ask 78.1% 140-159 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
160-179 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 1.3% · Ask 3.0% 160-179 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
180-199 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 2.9% · Ask 7.3% 180-199 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
200 or more Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.8% Bid 2.6% · Ask 4.9% 200 or more Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 81.0% Above 10 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 11 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 11 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 12 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 12 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 13 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 13 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 14 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 14 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 15 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 16 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 16 Open Kalshi ↗	—

5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 70.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5-6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 41.0%

5-6

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

7-8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.7%

7-8

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

9-10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8%

9-10

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

11-12

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

11-12

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

13-14

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

13-14

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

14

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

82.8%

Bid 68.3% · Ask 97.2%

<14

Open Polymarket ↗

23.1%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 44.7%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

15

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.3%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 52.1%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

15-16

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

15-16

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

16

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6%

>16

Open Polymarket ↗

19.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 39.3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

17+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.7%

17+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

<100 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

100-119

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

100-119 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

120-139

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.1%

Bid 6.4% · Ask 13.8%

120-139

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

140-159

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

71.0%

Bid 63.9% · Ask 78.1%

140-159

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

160-179

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 3.0%

160-179

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

180-199

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 7.3%

180-199

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

200 or more

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.8%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 4.9%

200 or more

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 6

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 7

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 8

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 98.0%

Above 9

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 81.0%

Above 10

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 11

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 11

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 12

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 12

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 13

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 13

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 14

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 14

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 15

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 15

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 16

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 16

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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