Market comparison

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $131K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

18 outcomes · $21K reported volume

Observed 6s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
0 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 0 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
0 to 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 0 to 4 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 1 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
1m Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.4% Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.3% >1m Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 37.0% 2 Open Kalshi ↗	—
3 to 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 45.0% 3 to 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—
5 to 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 5 to 9 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
10 to 14 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 10 to 14 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
10 to 24 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0% 10 to 24 Open Kalshi ↗	—
15 to 19 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 15 to 19 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
20 to 24 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 20 to 24 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
25 to 49 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 25 to 49 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
25 to 99 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0% 25 to 99 Open Kalshi ↗	—
50 to 99 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.6% · Ask 9.9% 50 to 99 Open Kalshi ↗	—
100 to 249 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0% 100 to 249 Open Kalshi ↗	—
100 to 499 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	52.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0% 100 to 499 Open Kalshi ↗	—
200-300k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% 200-300k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
200k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.5% Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.4% <200k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
300-400k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 14.0% 300-400k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
400-500k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 66.0% 400-500k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
500 to 999 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 21.0% 500 to 999 Open Kalshi ↗	—
500-600k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.3% Bid 8.6% · Ask 16.1% 500-600k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
600-700k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.8% 600-700k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
700-800k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.5% 700-800k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
800-900k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.3% 800-900k Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
900k-1m Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.7% 900k-1m Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1000 or more Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 19.0% 1000 or more Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 249 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 249 Open Kalshi ↗	—

0

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

0 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

0 to 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

0 to 4 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

1 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

1m

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.3%

>1m

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 37.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

3 to 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 45.0%

3 to 9

Open Kalshi ↗

5 to 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

5 to 9 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

10 to 14

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

10 to 14 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

10 to 24

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0%

10 to 24

Open Kalshi ↗

15 to 19

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

15 to 19 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

20 to 24

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

20 to 24 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

25 to 49

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

25 to 49 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

25 to 99

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0%

25 to 99

Open Kalshi ↗

50 to 99

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 9.9%

50 to 99

Open Kalshi ↗

100 to 249

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0%

100 to 249

Open Kalshi ↗

100 to 499

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0%

100 to 499

Open Kalshi ↗

200-300k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

200-300k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

200k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.4%

<200k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

300-400k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 14.0%

300-400k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

400-500k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

60.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 66.0%

400-500k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

500 to 999

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 21.0%

500 to 999

Open Kalshi ↗

500-600k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.3%

Bid 8.6% · Ask 16.1%

500-600k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

600-700k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.8%

600-700k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

700-800k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.5%

700-800k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

800-900k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.3%

800-900k

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

900k-1m

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.7%

900k-1m

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1000 or more

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 19.0%

1000 or more

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 249

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 249

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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