Market comparison

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $65K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 31, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
400k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.0% <400k Open Polymarket ↗	—
400k to 425k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 21.0% 400k to 425k Open Polymarket ↗	—
425k to 450k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0% 425k to 450k Open Polymarket ↗	—
450k to 475k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 13.0% 450k to 475k Open Polymarket ↗	—
475k to 500k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.0% 475k to 500k Open Polymarket ↗	—
500k to 525k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 23.0% 500k to 525k Open Polymarket ↗	—
525k to 550k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.6% Bid 6.8% · Ask 18.3% 525k to 550k Open Polymarket ↗	—
550k to 575k Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 550k to 575k Open Polymarket ↗	—
575k+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% 575k+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 1.5 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.5 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.6 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 1.6 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.7 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 1.7 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.8 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 76.0% Above 1.8 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.9 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 1.9 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.55 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 1.55 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.65 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 1.65 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.75 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 94.0% Above 1.75 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.85 million Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 21.0% Above 1.85 million Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

400k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.0%

<400k

Open Polymarket ↗

400k to 425k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 21.0%

400k to 425k

Open Polymarket ↗

425k to 450k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0%

425k to 450k

Open Polymarket ↗

450k to 475k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 13.0%

450k to 475k

Open Polymarket ↗

475k to 500k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.0%

475k to 500k

Open Polymarket ↗

500k to 525k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 23.0%

500k to 525k

Open Polymarket ↗

525k to 550k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.6%

Bid 6.8% · Ask 18.3%

525k to 550k

Open Polymarket ↗

550k to 575k

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

550k to 575k

Open Polymarket ↗

575k+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

575k+

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 1.5 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.5 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.6 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 1.6 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.7 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 91.0%

Above 1.7 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.8 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 76.0%

Above 1.8 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.9 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 1.9 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.55 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 1.55 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.65 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0%

Above 1.65 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.75 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 94.0%

Above 1.75 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.85 million

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 21.0%

Above 1.85 million

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets