Market comparison

Huon Valley mayoral election winner?

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $32K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Huon Valley mayoral election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Abby McKibben Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	35.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 37.0% Abby McKibben Open Polymarket ↗	34.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 38.0% Abby McKibben Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Mark Jessop Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	26.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 32.0% Mark Jessop Open Polymarket ↗	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 36.0% Mark Jessop Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Marshall Callaghan Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	1.8% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.0% Marshall Callaghan Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0% Marshall Callaghan Open Kalshi ↗	1.2 pp
Paul Gibson Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	21.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 31.0% Paul Gibson Open Polymarket ↗	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 31.0% Paul Gibson Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Sally Doyle Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9% Sally Doyle Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Toby Thorpe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9% Toby Thorpe Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Abby McKibben

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 37.0%

Abby McKibben

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 38.0%

Abby McKibben

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Mark Jessop

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 32.0%

Mark Jessop

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 36.0%

Mark Jessop

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Marshall Callaghan

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.0%

Marshall Callaghan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0%

Marshall Callaghan

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.2 pp

Paul Gibson

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 31.0%

Paul Gibson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 31.0%

Paul Gibson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Sally Doyle

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9%

Sally Doyle

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Toby Thorpe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9%

Toby Thorpe

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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