Market comparison
Idaho Senate winner?
2 venues · 3 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗3 outcomes · $822K reported volume
Observed 45s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗13 outcomes · $367K reported volume
Observed 45s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
- Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
Republican Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
Todd Achilles Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.3 pp |
Democratic
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
Republican
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Todd Achilles
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.3 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.