Market comparison

IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $18K reported volume

Observed 16s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 16s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for IL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.9% Democrat 0-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.8% Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.7% Democrat 15-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 9.2% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.5% Bid 22.2% · Ask 34.8% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.6% Bid 3.6% · Ask 11.7% Democrat 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.5% Democrat 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 55%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 0.6% · Ask 10.5% Democrat 55%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Garcia, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.2% Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.4% Garcia, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 90.1% Garcia, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	73.5% Bid 68.0% · Ask 79.0% Garcia, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 63.0% Garcia, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0% Garcia, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0% Garcia, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.9% Bid 2.6% · Ask 14.0% Garcia, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.7% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.7% Garcia, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Garcia, 51+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.6% Garcia, 51+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.9%

Democrat 0-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.7%

Democrat 15-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 9.2%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 22.2% · Ask 34.8%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.6%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 11.7%

Democrat 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.5%

Democrat 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 55%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 10.5%

Democrat 55%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Garcia, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

94.2%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 97.4%

Garcia, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 90.1%

Garcia, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

73.5%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 79.0%

Garcia, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 63.0%

Garcia, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0%

Garcia, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0%

Garcia, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.9%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 14.0%

Garcia, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 48+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.7%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.7%

Garcia, 48+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Garcia, 51+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.6%

Garcia, 51+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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