Market comparison

IL-04 House winner?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $65K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for IL-04 House winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	97.4% Bid 96.3% · Ask 98.4% Patty Garcia (D) Open Polymarket ↗	94.5% Bid 94.5% · Ask 95.9% Patty Garcia Open Kalshi ↗	2.9 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.1% Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.8% Lupe Castillo (R) Open Polymarket ↗	1.8% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.8% Lupe Castillo Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
Chris Getty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Chris Getty Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mayra Macías Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Mayra Macías Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

97.4%

Bid 96.3% · Ask 98.4%

Patty Garcia (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

94.5%

Bid 94.5% · Ask 95.9%

Patty Garcia

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.9 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.8%

Lupe Castillo (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.8%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.8%

Lupe Castillo

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

Chris Getty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Chris Getty

Open Kalshi ↗

Mayra Macías

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Mayra Macías

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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