Market comparison

IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $20K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3% Democrat 0-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.8% Democrat 20-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.6% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.9% Bid 4.1% · Ask 7.6% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0% Democrat 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.1% Bid 28.9% · Ask 33.2% Democrat 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 55-60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.1% Bid 9.1% · Ask 11.0% Democrat 55-60% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 60%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.3% Bid 0.5% · Ask 4.0% Democrat 60%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Quigley, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.3% Bid 91.1% · Ask 97.3% Quigley, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 34+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Quigley, 34+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 37+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0% Quigley, 37+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 40+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 76.0% Quigley, 40+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 43+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 57.0% Quigley, 43+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 46+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0% Quigley, 46+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 49+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0% Quigley, 49+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 52+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0% Quigley, 52+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Quigley, 55+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% Quigley, 55+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3%

Democrat 0-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.8%

Democrat 20-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.6%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.9%

Bid 4.1% · Ask 7.6%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0%

Democrat 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.1%

Bid 28.9% · Ask 33.2%

Democrat 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 55-60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.1%

Bid 9.1% · Ask 11.0%

Democrat 55-60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 60%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 4.0%

Democrat 60%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Quigley, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.3%

Bid 91.1% · Ask 97.3%

Quigley, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 34+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Quigley, 34+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 37+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0%

Quigley, 37+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 40+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 76.0%

Quigley, 40+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 43+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

53.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 57.0%

Quigley, 43+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 46+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0%

Quigley, 46+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 49+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0%

Quigley, 49+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 52+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0%

Quigley, 52+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Quigley, 55+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

Quigley, 55+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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