Market comparison

IL-16 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $18K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for IL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
LaHood, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 97.3% LaHood, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.8% LaHood, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 83.0% LaHood, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 62.0% LaHood, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 54.0% LaHood, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 40.0% LaHood, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 26.0% LaHood, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 5.2% · Ask 17.0% LaHood, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
LaHood, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% LaHood, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.1% · Ask 19.9% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 31.0% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 34.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 29.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.4% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.7% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.1% Republican 30%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

LaHood, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 97.3%

LaHood, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.8%

LaHood, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

71.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 83.0%

LaHood, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 62.0%

LaHood, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 54.0%

LaHood, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 40.0%

LaHood, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 26.0%

LaHood, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.2% · Ask 17.0%

LaHood, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

LaHood, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

LaHood, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.1% · Ask 19.9%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 31.0%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 34.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 29.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.4%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.7%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.1%

Republican 30%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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