Market comparison

Iowa Senate winner? (Person)

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $5.9M reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $1.1M reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Iowa Senate winner? (Person)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Josh Turek Open Kalshi ↗	42.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0% Josh Turek (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	58.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0% Ashley Hinson Open Kalshi ↗	57.5% Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0% Ashley Hinson (R) Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Ashley Hinson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0% Ashley Hinson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Josh Turek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Josh Turek Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Zach Wahls Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Zach Wahls · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Josh Turek

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

42.5%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0%

Josh Turek (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0%

Ashley Hinson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

57.5%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0%

Ashley Hinson (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Ashley Hinson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0%

Ashley Hinson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Josh Turek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Josh Turek

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Zach Wahls

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Zach Wahls · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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