Market comparison

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

2 venues · 15 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $7.2M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $281K reported volume

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Before April Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before April · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.8% Bid 7.2% · Ask 9.9% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 20, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0% Before Jan 20, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before July Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before July · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before June Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before June · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before May · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.5% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

Before April

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before April · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Aug 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Feb 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Before Feb 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.8%

Bid 7.2% · Ask 9.9%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 20, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before July

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before July · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before June

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before June · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Mar 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before May

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before May · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Sep 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.5%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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