Market comparison

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

2 venues · 15 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $490K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $249K reported volume

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Belize Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 3.1% · Ask 11.0% Belize Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bolivia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bolivia · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Colombia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Colombia · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Comoros Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.6% Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.0% Comoros Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Djibouti Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.9% Bid 2.7% · Ask 8.9% Djibouti Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Indonesia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.4% Bid 1.3% · Ask 5.4% Indonesia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Iran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Iran Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lebanon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 2.5% · Ask 5.9% Lebanon Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maldives Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0% Maldives Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mauritania Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.8% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.8% Mauritania Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Oman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 1.3% · Ask 6.9% Oman Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Saudi Arabia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.6% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.6% Saudi Arabia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Syria Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.5% Syria Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.5%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Belize

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 11.0%

Belize

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bolivia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bolivia · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Colombia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.2%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Colombia · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Comoros

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.6%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.0%

Comoros

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Djibouti

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.9%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 8.9%

Djibouti

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Indonesia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.4%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 5.4%

Indonesia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Iran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Iran

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lebanon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 5.9%

Lebanon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Maldives

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0%

Maldives

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mauritania

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.8%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.8%

Mauritania

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Oman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.3%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 6.9%

Oman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Saudi Arabia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.6%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.6%

Saudi Arabia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Syria

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.1%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.5%

Syria

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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