Market comparison

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

2 venues · 15 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

39 outcomes · $1.7M reported volume

Observed 39s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $100K reported volume

Observed 39s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Likud Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	30.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% Likud Open Polymarket ↗	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0% Likud Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Together Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.5% Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6% Together Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Together Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Yashar Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	69.5% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Yashar Open Polymarket ↗	73.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0% Yashar Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Bennett 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% Bennett 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
National Unity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.8% National Unity Open Kalshi ↗	—
Otzma Yehudit Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Otzma Yehudit Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Party AF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Party AF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Shas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Shas Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
The Democrats Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% The Democrats Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Yesh Atid Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.5% Yesh Atid Open Kalshi ↗	—

Likud

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

Likud

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0%

Likud

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Together

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6%

Together

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Together

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Yashar

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Yashar

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

73.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0%

Yashar

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Bennett 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

Bennett 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

National Unity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.8%

National Unity

Open Kalshi ↗

Otzma Yehudit

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Otzma Yehudit

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Party AF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Party AF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Shas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Shas

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Democrats

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

The Democrats

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Yesh Atid

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.5%

Yesh Atid

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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