Market comparison
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger
2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗17 outcomes · $142K reported volume
Observed 52s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $42K reported volume
Observed 52s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Li Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.5 pp | ||
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 9.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 Winner · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 8.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 8.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 50.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 100.0% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Game Spread +/-0.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 10.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 0.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 0.1% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 Winner · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 9.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | 0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 10.5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ | — | — |
Lilli Tagger Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Li
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 9.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 Winner · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 8.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 8.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
100.0%
Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 0.1% · Ask 100.0%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Game Spread +/-0.5
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
0.0%
Bid — · Ask 0.1%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 10.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
0.0%
Bid 3.0% · Ask 0.1%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 Winner · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
0.0%
Bid — · Ask 0.1%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 2 O/U 9.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
0.0%
Bid — · Ask 0.1%
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger Set 1 O/U 10.5 · closed
Open Polymarket ↗Kalshi
—
Lilli Tagger
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.