Market comparison

KS-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $18K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for KS-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.3% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Estes, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.8% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.7% Estes, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 82.0% Estes, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 72.0% Estes, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 48.0% · Ask 59.0% Estes, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 45.0% Estes, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0% Estes, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 9.2% · Ask 21.0% Estes, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 1.6% · Ask 13.0% Estes, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% Estes, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Estes, 32+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Estes, 32+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.6% Bid 7.2% · Ask 10.1% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.7% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.8% Bid 21.1% · Ask 22.4% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.1% Republican 30%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.3%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Estes, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.8%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.7%

Estes, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 82.0%

Estes, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 72.0%

Estes, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

53.5%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 59.0%

Estes, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 45.0%

Estes, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 32.0%

Estes, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 9.2% · Ask 21.0%

Estes, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 13.0%

Estes, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

Estes, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Estes, 32+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Estes, 32+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.6%

Bid 7.2% · Ask 10.1%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.7%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.8%

Bid 21.1% · Ask 22.4%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.1%

Republican 30%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets