Market comparison

KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $26K reported volume

Observed 19s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 19s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Guthrie, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 95.1% Guthrie, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.5% Bid 74.0% · Ask 85.0% Guthrie, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 74.0% Guthrie, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 59.0% Guthrie, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0% Guthrie, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 30.0% Guthrie, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 6.8% · Ask 18.0% Guthrie, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% Guthrie, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guthrie, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.6% Guthrie, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Republican 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.1% Republican 10-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 0.3% · Ask 8.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.1% Bid 12.2% · Ask 22.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 26.0% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 36.0% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0% Republican 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 6.9% Republican 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 50%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.6% Bid 4.3% · Ask 18.9% Republican 50%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Guthrie, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 95.1%

Guthrie, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.5%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 85.0%

Guthrie, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 74.0%

Guthrie, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 59.0%

Guthrie, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0%

Guthrie, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 30.0%

Guthrie, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 6.8% · Ask 18.0%

Guthrie, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

Guthrie, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Guthrie, 48+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.6%

Guthrie, 48+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Republican 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.1%

Republican 10-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 8.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 12.2% · Ask 22.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 26.0%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 36.0%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0%

Republican 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 6.9%

Republican 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 50%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.6%

Bid 4.3% · Ask 18.9%

Republican 50%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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