Market comparison

KY-03 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $16K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for KY-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.5% Bid 0.8% · Ask 22.1% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Democrat 5-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.4% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.1% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.5% Bid 35.0% · Ask 36.0% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.1% Bid 0.8% · Ask 11.4% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.5% Democrat 45%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
McGarvey, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.4% Bid 90.9% · Ask 96.0% McGarvey, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.8% Bid 81.0% · Ask 90.5% McGarvey, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.5% Bid 69.0% · Ask 80.0% McGarvey, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 69.0% McGarvey, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 58.0% McGarvey, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 32+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 48.0% McGarvey, 32+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 35+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0% McGarvey, 35+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 38+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 26.0% McGarvey, 38+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McGarvey, 41+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.9% Bid 4.8% · Ask 15.0% McGarvey, 41+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 22.1%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Democrat 5-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.4%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.1%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 36.0%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.1%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 11.4%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.5%

Democrat 45%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

McGarvey, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

92.4%

Bid 90.9% · Ask 96.0%

McGarvey, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.8%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 90.5%

McGarvey, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.5%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 80.0%

McGarvey, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 69.0%

McGarvey, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 58.0%

McGarvey, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 32+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

42.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 48.0%

McGarvey, 32+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 35+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0%

McGarvey, 35+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 38+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 26.0%

McGarvey, 38+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

McGarvey, 41+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.9%

Bid 4.8% · Ask 15.0%

McGarvey, 41+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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