Market comparison

Launceston mayoral election winner?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Launceston mayoral election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Kyle Barrett Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	20.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0% Kyle Barrett Open Polymarket ↗	23.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 27.0% Kyle Barrett Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
Matthew Garwood Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	59.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0% Matthew Garwood Open Polymarket ↗	57.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 67.0% Matthew Garwood Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Paul Mallett Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	3.5% Bid 1.8% · Ask 5.3% Paul Mallett Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% Paul Mallett Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Rose Diamond Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	2.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0% Rose Diamond Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% Rose Diamond Open Kalshi ↗	3.1 pp
Tim Walker Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.3% Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.0% Tim Walker Open Polymarket ↗	4.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Tim Walker Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp

Kyle Barrett

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0%

Kyle Barrett

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 27.0%

Kyle Barrett

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

Matthew Garwood

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0%

Matthew Garwood

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 67.0%

Matthew Garwood

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Paul Mallett

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 5.3%

Paul Mallett

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0%

Paul Mallett

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Rose Diamond

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0%

Rose Diamond

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0%

Rose Diamond

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.1 pp

Tim Walker

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.0%

Tim Walker

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Tim Walker

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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