The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Pellegrino

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0%

Andrea Pellegrino

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

62.5%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.5%

Bid — · Ask 95.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.5%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 67.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

52.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 54.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

44.5%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

41.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 42.0%

Set Handicap: Andrea Pellegrino (-1.5) vs Svyatoslav Gulin (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 39.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.0%

Bid — · Ask 76.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0%

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0%

Set Handicap: Svyatoslav Gulin (-1.5) vs Andrea Pellegrino (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Svyatoslav Gulin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

Svyatoslav Gulin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets