The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

LYON vs. Team Secret Whales

2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $36K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 49s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Team Secret Whales

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Team Secret Whales

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

41.5%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Match Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Any Player Quadra Kill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Any Player Quadra Kill

Open Polymarket ↗

Any Player Quadra Kill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid — · Ask 100.0%

Any Player Penta Kill

Open Polymarket ↗

Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid — · Ask 99.0%

Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors

Open Polymarket ↗

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 100.0%

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

Open Polymarket ↗

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid — · Ask 99.0%

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

Open Polymarket ↗

LYON

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0%

LYON

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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