The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

M15 Maceio: Leonardo Storck Franca vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 10s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Storck Franca

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0%

Leonardo Storck Franca

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

M15 Maceio: Leonardo Storck Franca vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0%

Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Set Handicap: Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava (-1.5) vs Leonardo Storck Franca (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 100.0%

Set Handicap: Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava (-1.5) vs Leonardo Storck Franca (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Set Handicap: Leonardo Storck Franca (-1.5) vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 100.0%

Set Handicap: Leonardo Storck Franca (-1.5) vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets