The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Ma vs Kasatkina

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Ma

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0%

Yexin Ma

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Daria Kasatkina

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 82.0%

Daria Kasatkina

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 96.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 61.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0%

Set Handicap: Daria Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Yexin Ma (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 52.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Game Spread +/-5.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 98.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

31.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 32.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 29.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0%

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina Set 1 O/U 9.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0%

Set Handicap: Yexin Ma (-1.5) vs Daria Kasatkina (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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