Market comparison
Maine Senate winner?
2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗18 outcomes · $12.8M reported volume
Observed 33s ago
Observed 33s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗13 outcomes · $2.4M reported volume
Observed 33s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
- Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Republican Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.0 pp | ||
Angus King Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Angus King III Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Brian Bryant Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Dan Kleban Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Graham Platner Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Janet Mills Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Jared Golden Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Mattie Daughtrey Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Nirav Shah Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Patrick Dempsey Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Sara Gideon Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Shenna Bellows Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Stephen King Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Susan Collins Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Troy Jackson Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Valli Geiger Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Democratic
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Republican
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.0 pp
Angus King
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Angus King III
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Brian Bryant
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Dan Kleban
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Graham Platner
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Janet Mills
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Jared Golden
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Mattie Daughtrey
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Nirav Shah
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Patrick Dempsey
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Sara Gideon
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Shenna Bellows
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Stephen King
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Susan Collins
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Troy Jackson
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Valli Geiger
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.