Market comparison

MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $25K reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Democrat 0-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50-60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Democrat 50-60% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 60-65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Democrat 60-65% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 65-70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.4% Democrat 65-70% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 70-75% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.8% Democrat 70-75% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 75-80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 75-80% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 80-85% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 42.0% Democrat 80-85% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 85-90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 85-90% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 90%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 29.9% Democrat 90%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Ivey, 64+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.3% Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.1% Ivey, 64+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 67+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.6% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.3% Ivey, 67+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 70+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0% Ivey, 70+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 73+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 81.0% Ivey, 73+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 76+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 70.0% Ivey, 76+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 79+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 57.0% Ivey, 79+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 82+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 36.0% Ivey, 82+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 85+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 25.0% Ivey, 85+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ivey, 88+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 15.0% Ivey, 88+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Democrat 0-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50-60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Democrat 50-60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 60-65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Democrat 60-65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 65-70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.4%

Democrat 65-70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 70-75%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.8%

Democrat 70-75%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 75-80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 75-80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 80-85%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 42.0%

Democrat 80-85%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 85-90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 85-90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 90%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 29.9%

Democrat 90%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Ivey, 64+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.3%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.1%

Ivey, 64+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 67+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.6%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.3%

Ivey, 67+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 70+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0%

Ivey, 70+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 73+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 81.0%

Ivey, 73+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 76+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 70.0%

Ivey, 76+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 79+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 57.0%

Ivey, 79+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 82+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 36.0%

Ivey, 82+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 85+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 25.0%

Ivey, 85+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ivey, 88+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 15.0%

Ivey, 88+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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