The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Medvedev vs Atmane

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $57K reported volume

Observed 43s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Medvedev

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Daniil Medvedev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

84.5%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 85.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

81.5%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

78.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 80.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 77.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

61.5%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 62.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

60.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Game Spread +/-3.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 65.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.5%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 38.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Terence Atmane

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Terence Atmane

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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