Market comparison

Michigan Governor Election Winner

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $490K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $396K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Michigan Governor Election Winner
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	92.9% Bid 92.0% · Ask 92.9% Jocelyn Benson Open Kalshi ↗	93.7% Bid 93.5% · Ask 93.8% Jocelyn Benson (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.7 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.7% Bid 7.4% · Ask 7.7% John James Open Kalshi ↗	6.3% Bid 6.2% · Ask 6.4% John James (R) Open Polymarket ↗	1.4 pp
Independent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Independent Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mike Duggan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Mike Duggan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

92.9%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 92.9%

Jocelyn Benson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

93.7%

Bid 93.5% · Ask 93.8%

Jocelyn Benson (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

7.7%

Bid 7.4% · Ask 7.7%

John James

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 6.2% · Ask 6.4%

John James (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

Independent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Independent

Open Polymarket ↗

Mike Duggan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Mike Duggan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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