Market comparison

Michigan Senate winner?

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $11.3M reported volume

Observed 33s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $2.1M reported volume

Observed 33s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Michigan Senate winner?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Abdul El-Sayed Open Kalshi ↗	70.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0% Abdul El-Sayed (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	31.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% Mike Rogers Open Kalshi ↗	29.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0% Mike Rogers (R) Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Abdul El-Sayed Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Abdul El-Sayed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Haley Stevens Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Haley Stevens · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mallory McMorrow Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Mallory McMorrow · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Rogers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% Mike Rogers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Abdul El-Sayed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

70.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0%

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

Mike Rogers

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0%

Mike Rogers (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Abdul El-Sayed

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Abdul El-Sayed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Haley Stevens

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Haley Stevens · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mallory McMorrow

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Mallory McMorrow · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Rogers

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

Mike Rogers

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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