Market comparison

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $3.4M reported volume

Observed 18s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $336K reported volume

Observed 18s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	87.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 88.0% Peggy Flanagan Open Kalshi ↗	88.5% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% Peggy Flanagan (D) Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	15.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Michele Tafoya Open Kalshi ↗	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Michele Tafoya (R) Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp