Market comparison

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

2 venues · 65 outcome rows · 19 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

49 outcomes · $5.4M reported volume

Observed 14s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 8, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

51 outcomes · $1.1M reported volume

Observed 14s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 13, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for MLB: 2026 AL MVP
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Aaron Judge Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Aaron Judge Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Aaron Judge Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Ben Rice Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ben Rice Open Kalshi ↗	0.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3% Ben Rice Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Bobby Witt Jr. Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Bobby Witt Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Bobby Witt Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	0.7 pp
Byron Buxton Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Byron Buxton Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Byron Buxton Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Cal Raleigh Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cal Raleigh Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Cal Raleigh Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Cam Schlittler Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Cam Schlittler Open Kalshi ↗	1.3% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.7% Cam Schlittler Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Corey Seager Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Corey Seager Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Corey Seager Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Dillon Dingler Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Dillon Dingler Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Dillon Dingler Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Gunnar Henderson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Gunnar Henderson Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Gunnar Henderson Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
José Ramírez Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% José Ramírez Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.3% Jose Ramirez Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Julio Rodríguez Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Julio Rodríguez Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Julio Rodriguez Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Junior Caminero Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Junior Caminero Open Kalshi ↗	2.3% Bid 1.8% · Ask 2.8% Junior Caminero Open Polymarket ↗	1.3 pp
Miguel Vargas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Miguel Vargas Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Miguel Vargas Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Mike Trout Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Mike Trout Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Mike Trout Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Munetaka Murakami Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Munetaka Murakami Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Munetaka Murakami Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Nick Kurtz Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nick Kurtz Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nick Kurtz Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Pete Alonso Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Pete Alonso Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pete Alonso Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Yordan Álvarez Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	97.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Yordan Álvarez Open Kalshi ↗	96.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0% Yordan Alvarez Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Adley Rutschman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Adley Rutschman Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Alejandro Kirk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Alejandro Kirk Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Brent Rooker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Brent Rooker Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Carlos Correa Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Carlos Correa Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ceddanne Rafaela Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ceddanne Rafaela Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cody Bellinger Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cody Bellinger Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Colson Montgomery Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Colson Montgomery Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daulton Varsho Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Daulton Varsho Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Garrett Crochet Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Garrett Crochet Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
George Springer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% George Springer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jackson Holliday Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jackson Holliday Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jacob Wilson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jacob Wilson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jarren Duran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jarren Duran Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jeremy Peña Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jeremy Peña Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jo Adell Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jo Adell Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jose Altuve Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jose Altuve Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Josh Naylor Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Josh Naylor Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maikel García Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Maikel García Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Player AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AG · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AH Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AH · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AI · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AJ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AJ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AK Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AK · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AL Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AL · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AM · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AN · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Player AO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Player AO · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Randy Arozarena Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Randy Arozarena Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Riley Greene Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Riley Greene Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Roman Anthony Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Roman Anthony Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shea Langeliers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Shea Langeliers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steven Kwan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Steven Kwan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tarik Skubal Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tarik Skubal Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tie/Co-Winners Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tie/Co-Winners Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trevor Story Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Trevor Story Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Wilson Contreras Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Wilson Contreras Open Polymarket ↗	—
Wyatt Langford Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Wyatt Langford Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yandy Diaz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Yandy Diaz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Zach Neto Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Zach Neto Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Aaron Judge

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Aaron Judge

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

Aaron Judge

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ben Rice

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bobby Witt Jr.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Byron Buxton

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cal Raleigh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cam Schlittler

Kalshi

Polymarket

Corey Seager

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dillon Dingler

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gunnar Henderson

Kalshi

Polymarket

José Ramírez

Kalshi

Polymarket

Julio Rodríguez

Kalshi

Polymarket

Junior Caminero

Kalshi

Polymarket

Miguel Vargas

Kalshi

Polymarket

Mike Trout

Kalshi

Polymarket

Munetaka Murakami

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nick Kurtz

Kalshi

Polymarket

Pete Alonso

Kalshi

Polymarket

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Yordan Álvarez

Kalshi

Polymarket

Adley Rutschman

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alejandro Kirk

Kalshi

Polymarket

Brent Rooker

Kalshi

Polymarket

Carlos Correa

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ceddanne Rafaela

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cody Bellinger

Kalshi

Polymarket

Colson Montgomery