Market comparison

Montana Senate Election Winner

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $988K reported volume

Observed 27s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $186K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Montana Senate Election Winner
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0% Alani Bankhead Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Alani Bankhead (D) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	93.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0% Kurt Alme Open Kalshi ↗	92.5% Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0% Kurt Alme (R) Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Independent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.4% Bid 6.9% · Ask 8.0% Independent Open Polymarket ↗	—
Seth Bodnar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 7.5% · Ask 7.9% Seth Bodnar Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.3%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0%

Alani Bankhead

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Alani Bankhead (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0%

Kurt Alme

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

92.5%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0%

Kurt Alme (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Independent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.4%

Bid 6.9% · Ask 8.0%

Independent

Open Polymarket ↗

Seth Bodnar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 7.5% · Ask 7.9%

Seth Bodnar

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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