The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

MotoGP World Champion

2 venues · 45 outcome rows · 22 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $93K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 14, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

46 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 29, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Ai Ogura

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Ai Ogura

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Ai Ogura

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Alex Marquez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Alex Marquez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Alex Marquez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Alex Rins

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Alex Rins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Alex Rins · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Brad Binder

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Brad Binder

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Brad Binder · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Diogo Moreira

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Diogo Moreira

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Diogo Moreira · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Enea Bastianini

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Enea Bastianini

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Enea Bastianini · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Fabio Di Giannantonio

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Fabio Di Giannantonio

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Fabio Di Giannantonio

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Fabio Quartararo

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Fabio Quartararo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Fabio Quartararo · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Fermin Aldeguer

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Fermin Aldeguer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Fermin Aldeguer · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Francesco Bagnaia

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Francesco Bagnaia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Francesco Bagnaia · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Franco Morbidelli

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Franco Morbidelli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Franco Morbidelli · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Jack Miller

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jack Miller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Jack Miller · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Joan Mir

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Joan Mir

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Joan Mir · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Johann Zarco

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Johann Zarco

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Johann Zarco · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Jorge Martin

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Jorge Martin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0%

Jorge Martin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Luca Marini

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Luca Marini

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Luca Marini · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Marc Marquez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 72.0%

Marc Marquez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

75.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 77.0%

Marc Marquez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

Marco Bezzecchi

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Marco Bezzecchi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.5%

Marco Bezzecchi

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Maverick Vinales

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Maverick Vinales

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Maverick Vinales · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Pedro Acosta

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Pedro Acosta

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pedro Acosta

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Raul Fernandez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Raul Fernandez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Raul Fernandez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Toprak Razgatlioglu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Toprak Razgatlioglu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Toprak Razgatlioglu · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Augusto Fernandez

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Augusto Fernandez · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Iker Lecuona

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Iker Lecuona · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Pol Espargaro

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pol Espargaro · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider N

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider N · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider O

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider O · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider P

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider P · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider Q

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider Q · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider R

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider R · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider S

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider S · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Rider T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Rider T · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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