Market comparison

MVP Winner?

2 venues · 51 outcome rows · 26 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

49 outcomes · $36.5M reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 12, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

40 outcomes · $1.3M reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 15, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for MVP Winner?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Baker Mayfield Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Baker Mayfield Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Baker Mayfield Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Bijan Robinson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Bijan Robinson Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Bijan Robinson Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Bo Nix Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Bo Nix Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Bo Nix Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Brock Purdy Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	26.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% Brock Purdy Open Kalshi ↗	26.4% Bid 26.0% · Ask 26.7% Brock Purdy Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Caleb Williams Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Caleb Williams Open Kalshi ↗	3.9% Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.5% Caleb Williams Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Christian McCaffrey Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Christian McCaffrey Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Christian McCaffrey Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Dak Prescott Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Dak Prescott Open Kalshi ↗	2.0% Bid 1.7% · Ask 2.3% Dak Prescott Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Derrick Henry Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Derrick Henry Open Kalshi ↗	0.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 0.8% Derrick Henry Open Polymarket ↗	0.3 pp
Drake Maye Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Drake Maye Open Kalshi ↗	4.3% Bid 3.5% · Ask 5.1% Drake Maye Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
Jahmyr Gibbs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Jahmyr Gibbs Open Kalshi ↗	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Jahmyr Gibbs Open Polymarket ↗	0.6 pp
Jalen Hurts Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jalen Hurts Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% Jalen Hurts Open Polymarket ↗	0.7 pp
Jared Goff Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Jared Goff Open Kalshi ↗	2.9% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.0% Jared Goff Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Jaxson Dart Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jaxson Dart Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Jaxson Dart Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Joe Burrow Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Joe Burrow Open Kalshi ↗	5.1% Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.3% Joe Burrow Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Jordan Love Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Jordan Love Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 5.4% · Ask 5.5% Jordan Love Open Polymarket ↗	1.4 pp
Josh Allen Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0% Josh Allen Open Kalshi ↗	28.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Josh Allen Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Justin Herbert Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Justin Herbert Open Kalshi ↗	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% Justin Herbert Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Justin Jefferson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Justin Jefferson Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Justin Jefferson Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Lamar Jackson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Lamar Jackson Open Kalshi ↗	3.6% Bid 2.6% · Ask 4.6% Lamar Jackson Open Polymarket ↗	0.6 pp
Matthew Stafford Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Matthew Stafford Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Matthew Stafford Open Polymarket ↗	0.8 pp
Myles Garrett Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Myles Garrett Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Myles Garrett Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Patrick Mahomes Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Patrick Mahomes Open Kalshi ↗	8.6% Bid 8.4% · Ask 8.7% Patrick Mahomes Open Polymarket ↗	0.6 pp
Puka Nacua Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Puka Nacua Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Puka Nacua Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Sam Darnold Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Sam Darnold Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Sam Darnold Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Saquon Barkley Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Saquon Barkley Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Saquon Barkley Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Trevor Lawrence Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Trevor Lawrence Open Kalshi ↗	5.1% Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.6% Trevor Lawrence Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
A.J. Brown Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% A.J. Brown Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Aaron Rodgers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Aaron Rodgers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ashton Jeanty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ashton Jeanty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bryce Young Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Bryce Young Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cam Ward Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cam Ward Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
CeeDee Lamb Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% CeeDee Lamb Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
CJ Stroud Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% CJ Stroud Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daniel Jones Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Daniel Jones Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
De'Von Achane Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% De'Von Achane Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deshaun Watson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Deshaun Watson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ja'Marr Chase Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ja'Marr Chase Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.3% Jaxson Smith-Njigba Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jayden Daniels Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jayden Daniels Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
JJ McCarthy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% JJ McCarthy Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jonathan Taylor Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jonathan Taylor Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Josh Jacobs Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Josh Jacobs Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kenneth Walker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Kenneth Walker Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kirk Cousins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kirk Cousins Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kyler Murray Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kyler Murray Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Micah Parsons Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Micah Parsons Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Michael Penix Jr Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Michael Penix Jr Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tie/Co-Winners Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tie/Co-Winners Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tua Tagovailoa Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tua Tagovailoa Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tyler Shough Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tyler Shough Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Baker Mayfield

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Baker Mayfield

MVP Winner?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

Baker Mayfield

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bijan Robinson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bo Nix

Kalshi

Polymarket

Brock Purdy

Kalshi

Polymarket

Caleb Williams

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christian McCaffrey

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dak Prescott

Kalshi

Polymarket

Derrick Henry

Kalshi

Polymarket

Drake Maye

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jahmyr Gibbs

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jalen Hurts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jared Goff

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jaxson Dart

Kalshi

Polymarket

Joe Burrow

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jordan Love

Kalshi

Polymarket

Josh Allen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Justin Herbert

Kalshi

Polymarket

Justin Jefferson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Lamar Jackson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Matthew Stafford

Kalshi

Polymarket

Myles Garrett

Kalshi

Polymarket

Patrick Mahomes

Kalshi

Polymarket

Puka Nacua

Kalshi

Polymarket

Sam Darnold

Kalshi

Polymarket

Saquon Barkley

Kalshi

Polymarket

Trevor Lawrence