Market comparison

NC-08 House Election Winner

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $58K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for NC-08 House Election Winner
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.8% Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.5% Colby Watson (D) Open Polymarket ↗	4.7% Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.7% Colby Watson Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	95.8% Bid 95.1% · Ask 96.4% Mark Harris (R) Open Polymarket ↗	95.3% Bid 94.7% · Ask 96.8% Mark Harris Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp