Market comparison

Nebraska Senate winner?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $3.1M reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $848K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Nebraska Senate winner?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Cindy Burbank Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Democrat Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	74.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 74.0% Pete Ricketts Open Kalshi ↗	72.5% Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0% Pete Ricketts (R) Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Dan Osborn Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Dan Osborn Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Independent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% Independent Open Polymarket ↗	—

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Cindy Burbank

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Democrat

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 74.0%

Pete Ricketts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

72.5%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0%

Pete Ricketts (R)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Dan Osborn

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Dan Osborn

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Independent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

Independent

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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