Market comparison

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

2 venues · 15 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

34 outcomes · $50K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 37s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Chloe Swarbrick Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Chlöe Swarbrick Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Chlöe Swarbrick Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
Chris Hipkins Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	35.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 39.0% Chris Hipkins Open Polymarket ↗	41.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 48.0% Chris Hipkins Open Kalshi ↗	5.5 pp
Christopher Luxon Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	63.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0% Christopher Luxon Open Polymarket ↗	60.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 60.0% Christopher Luxon Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
David Seymour Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% David Seymour Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% David Seymour Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Nicola Willis Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Nicola Willis Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nicola Willis Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Winston Peters Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Winston Peters Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Winston Peters Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Carmel Sepuloni Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Carmel Sepuloni Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Chris Bishop Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Chris Bishop Open Kalshi ↗	—
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Open Kalshi ↗	—
Erica Stanford Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Erica Stanford Open Kalshi ↗	—
Marama Davidson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Marama Davidson Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mark Mitchell Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Mark Mitchell Open Kalshi ↗	—
Qiulae Wong Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Qiulae Wong Open Kalshi ↗	—
Rawiri Waititi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Rawiri Waititi Open Kalshi ↗	—
Simeon Brown Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Simeon Brown Open Kalshi ↗	—

Chloe Swarbrick

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Chlöe Swarbrick

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Chlöe Swarbrick

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Chris Hipkins

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 39.0%

Chris Hipkins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 48.0%

Chris Hipkins

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Christopher Luxon

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

63.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0%

Christopher Luxon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 60.0%

Christopher Luxon

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

David Seymour

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

David Seymour

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

David Seymour

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Nicola Willis

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Nicola Willis

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nicola Willis

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Winston Peters

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Winston Peters

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Winston Peters

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Carmel Sepuloni

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Carmel Sepuloni

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Chris Bishop

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Chris Bishop

Open Kalshi ↗

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

Open Kalshi ↗

Erica Stanford

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Erica Stanford

Open Kalshi ↗

Marama Davidson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Marama Davidson

Open Kalshi ↗

Mark Mitchell

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Mark Mitchell

Open Kalshi ↗

Qiulae Wong

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Qiulae Wong

Open Kalshi ↗

Rawiri Waititi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Rawiri Waititi

Open Kalshi ↗

Simeon Brown

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Simeon Brown

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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