Market comparison
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider
2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $21K reported volume
Observed 20s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Rybakina Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Completed Match Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Diana Shnaider Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 73.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 74.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 8.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 60.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 53.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Game Spread +/-2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 51.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 50.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 55.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 9.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 22.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 41.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 42.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set Handicap +/-1.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 40.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 23.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 39.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Total Sets: O/U 2.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 34.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 65.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 2 Winner Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | 25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0% Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 10.5 Open Polymarket ↗ | — |
Rybakina
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Completed Match
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Diana Shnaider
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
73.0%
Bid 72.0% · Ask 74.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 8.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
60.0%
Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
53.5%
Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Game Spread +/-2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
51.5%
Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
50.0%
Bid 45.0% · Ask 55.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 9.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
45.0%
Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 22.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
41.0%
Bid 40.0% · Ask 42.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set Handicap +/-1.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
40.5%
Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 23.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
39.0%
Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
34.0%
Bid 3.0% · Ask 65.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 2 Winner
Open Polymarket ↗Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Match O/U 21.5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
25.0%
Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0%
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Set 1 O/U 10.5
Open Polymarket ↗Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.