Market comparison

NM-03 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 49s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 49s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for NM-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.7% · Ask 5.4% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.5% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.7% Bid 21.4% · Ask 40.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 28.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.5% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.8% Bid 1.7% · Ask 5.8% Democrat 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Fernández, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.5% Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.9% Fernández, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0% Fernández, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 79.0% Fernández, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0% Fernández, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	55.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 61.0% Fernández, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 50.0% Fernández, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 39.0% Fernández, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0% Fernández, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernández, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 17.0% Fernández, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 5.4%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.5%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.7%

Bid 21.4% · Ask 40.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 28.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.5%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.8%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 5.8%

Democrat 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Fernández, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.5%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.9%

Fernández, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0%

Fernández, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 79.0%

Fernández, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0%

Fernández, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 61.0%

Fernández, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 50.0%

Fernández, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 39.0%

Fernández, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0%

Fernández, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernández, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 17.0%

Fernández, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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