Market comparison

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume

Observed 52s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $306K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Polymarket counts 25 bp units (a 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts); Kalshi counts cut decisions (a 50 bp cut counts as 1). Same labels pay the same only if every move is 25 bps.
Polymarket counts emergency moves between meetings; Kalshi counts every cut in the calendar year.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Number of rate hikes in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
1 (25 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0% 1 (25 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Exactly 1 Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
2 (50 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	68.5% Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0% 2 (50 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	68.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0% Exactly 2 Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
3 (75 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	6.8% Bid 6.7% · Ask 6.8% 3 (75 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Exactly 3 Open Kalshi ↗	1.2 pp
0 (0 bps) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 0 (0 bps) · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4 (100 bps) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% 4 (100 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5+ (125+ bps) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 5+ (125+ bps) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
At least 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% At least 4 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 0 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Exactly 0 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

1 (25 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0%

1 (25 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

Exactly 1

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

2 (50 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

68.5%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0%

2 (50 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0%

Exactly 2

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

3 (75 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

6.8%

Bid 6.7% · Ask 6.8%

3 (75 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Exactly 3

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.2 pp

0 (0 bps)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

0 (0 bps) · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4 (100 bps)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

4 (100 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5+ (125+ bps)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

5+ (125+ bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

At least 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

At least 4

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 0

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Exactly 0 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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